Thursday, August 25, 2011

Big Ten By The Numbers

As I was researching Big Ten Football over the last decade, I came across some crazy information.  Did you know that Minnesota has beaten Arkansas, Oregon and Alabama as their last three bowl wins, while Michigan has only beaten one team in a bowl game the last 10 years....Florida twice!  Or how about this, Northwestern has just one bowl win in school history, and that was the 1949 Rose Bowl.  Below are some other numbers and information to impress your friends with.

Total Wins in Program History:
1. Michigan 884
2. Nebraska 837
3. Ohio State 819 (lost 11 wins from 2010 season)
4. Penn State 818
5. Minnesota 642
6. Michigan State 628
7. Wisconsin 624
8. Iowa 587
9. Purdue 579
10. Illinois 572
11. Northwestern 468
12. Indiana 449

Bowl Game Appearances over the last 10 seasons
1t. Iowa 9 (6-3)
1t. Ohio State 9 (5-4) (does not include Sugar Bowl from 2010)
1t. Wisconsin 9 (4-5)
4t. Nebraska 8 (5-3)
4t. Michigan 8 (2-6)
6t. Penn State 7 (4-3)
6t. Minnesota 7 (3-4)
8t. Purdue 6 (2-4)
8t. Michigan State 6 (1-5)
10. Northwestern 5 (0-5)
11. Illinois 3 (1-2)
12. Indiana 1 (0-1)


Monday, August 22, 2011

Prokop's Parlay: How to Spend $100 on College Football Preseason Odds

Throughout the season I will be wagering $100 every single week on college football bets.  There are 14 weeks of the regular season (including conference championship week) and I am giving myself a budget of $100 to spend on preseason picks.  So in all I am putting $1,500 on the line this football season to test my betting knowledge.  Rest easy friends and family, this is all just fake money and it not result in me losing the house.  However, I am curious how I would do throughout the entire season, so I will keep track on this blog of my earnings and losses.  At the end of the season, I will keep track of what I win and put the money down on bowl season. 

If you are interested in where I get the odds, you can find out and follow along at bodog.com.  I am strictly keeping it to college football for this experiment, but I may post other sports betting odds that I find interesting.  First, my betting philosophy tends to have me participate in 3-5 team parlays.  If you are unaware of a parlay, you have to hit all of the games correct to win.

So let's take a look at how I would spend my $100 of college football preseason bets.

Odds to win Heisman Trophy:
Scott Spends: $8 on LaMichael James to win $60 at 15/2
Scott Spends: $7 on Michael Floyd to win $280 at 40/1
Scott Spends: $5 on Andrew Luck to win $17.50 at 7/2

Explanation:  Picking the Heisman winner is difficult so I am only willing to risk $15 on it.  I love Michael Floyd the WR for Notre Dame at 40/1.  It is a long shot, but if Notre Dame has a good season, he will be the reason why.  He played great against Miami in the Sun Bowl and Notre Dame has the marquee games to get him noticed early.  Andrew Luck is the preseason favorite and everyone has him as the number 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft.

Odds to win National Championship:
Scott Spends: $10 on Wisconsin to win $180 at 18/1
Scott Spends: $5 on South Carolina to win $125 at 25/1
Scott Spends: $5 on Oregon to win $70 at 14/1

Explanation: I really think Wisconsin is the team to beat this year in the Big Ten.  They have a pathetic non-conference schedule and if they can win at Ohio State, I believe they go undefeated this year.  I have South Carolina because they have a Heisman candidate at QB and RB and because the SEC always puts a team in the title game.  Oregon is purely because I think the Pac-12 is mediocre and they can run through it. 

Odds to win Conference Championship:
Scott Spends: $20 on Ohio State to win Leaders Division to win $50 at 5/2
Scott Spends: $10 on Oklahoma State to win Big 12 to win $90 at 9/1
Scott Spends: $10 on Michigan State to win Legends Division to win $40 at 4/1
Scott Spends: $10 on Toledo to win MAC to win $32.50 at 13/4

Explanation: I know that I contradict my National Championship bet with Ohio State to win the Leaders Division.  I just think that if Ohio State wins at home against Wisconsin that Ohio State is a shoe-in to win the division.  They have won the conference the last 7 years, surely they can win the division.  I also really like Oklahoma State to upset Oklahoma for the Big 12 championship, especially at 9/1 odds.

Odds on Over/Under Win Totals:
Scott Spends: $10 on Boise State winning UNDER 10 games to win $24 at (+240)

Explanation: Boise State is in a new conference and will actually have to play some teams with a pulse.  I actually believe they will probably win 10 games, but if they don't I think it will be less considering they play @Georgia, TCU, @Toledo and @San Diego State. 

So there you have it for my preseason odds that stood out to me.  Below is my betting slip for the preseason!

Odds to win Heisman Trophy:
Scott Spends: $8 on LaMichael James to win $60 at 15/2
Scott Spends: $7 on Michael Floyd to win $280 at 40/1
Scott Spends: $5 on Andrew Luck to win $17.50 at 7/2
Odds to win National Championship:
Scott Spends: $10 on Wisconsin to win $180 at 18/1
Scott Spends: $5 on South Carolina to win $125 at 25/1
Scott Spends: $5 on Oregon to win $70 at 14/1
Odds to win Conference Championship:
Scott Spends: $20 on Ohio State to win Leaders Division to win $50 at 5/2
Scott Spends: $10 on Oklahoma State to win Big 12 to win $90 at 9/1
Scott Spends: $10 on Michigan State to win Legends Division to win $40 at 4/1
Scott Spends: $10 on Toledo to win MAC to win $32.50 at 13/4
Odds on Over/Under Win Totals:
Scott Spends: $10 on Boise State winning UNDER 10 games to win $24 at (+240)

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Prokop's Big Ten Preview: Ranking the Big Ten Quarterbacks

Scott Prokop's Big Ten Quarterback Unit Rankings:

1. Denard Robinson, Michigan
Robinson was the Big Ten's Offensive Player of the year last season rushing for 1,702 yards.  The problem is he missed time in 10 of Michigan's 13 games due to taking a lot of hits.  The back-up this year is Davin Gardner.

2. Dan Persa, Northwestern
Persa set a Big Ten record for completion percentage before his season ending torn Achilles.  He also set a team record for pass efficiency and had 519 rushing yards. 

3. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin
As a 3-year starter at NC State, Wilson threw for 8,500 yards and 76 TD's and ran for 1,000 yards and 11 TD's.  He tends to throw a lot of interceptions and make too many mistakes.

4. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State
Kirk Cousins is one of the few pocket-passing QB's in the Big Ten.  He is Michigan State's all-time leader in completion percentage.  Last season he threw for 20 TD's and 10 INTs. 
5. Taylor Martinez, Nebraska
Martinez had a tale of two season's last year.  In his first seven games he had 870 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns and in his final seven games he rushed for only 95 yards and 0 TD's.  The sophomore needs to develop as a passer.

6. Nathan Scheelhaase, Illiniois
Sheelhaase had the best year of any freshman QB in Illinois history, setting a school record for rushing yards at the position.  He also had a 17-8 TD to INT ratio. 

7. James Vandenberg, Iowa
Vandenberg played great for three quarters against Ohio State in 2009 before throwing a couple interceptions in the 4th quarter.  Iowa folk-hero Ricky Stanzi has graduated on to the NFL, and it is Vandenberg's turn to lead the Hawkeyes. A heady player with good size at 6"3, 210.

8. Matt McGloin/Rob Bolden, Penn State
Penn State has a two-way QB battle with co-starters Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin battling for the starting job. Bolden performed well in the start of 2010 but was injured and nearly transferred. McGloin is a former-walk-on who performed well at times but struggled immensely down the stretch.

9. Joe Bauserman/Braxton Miller/Kenny Guiten/Taylor Graham, Ohio State
Ohio State has a four-way battle at the QB position after the departure of Pryor.  The leading candidates are senior Joe Bauserman and freshman Braxton Miller. 

10. MarQueis Gray, Minnesota
MarQueis Gray was a talented wide receiver for the Gophers his first two seasons.  Gray was a highly rated QB recruit and has great legs, but must prove he has the arm for the job. 

11. Robert Marve/Rob Henry, Purdue
Robert Marve tore his ACL in Game 4 last season.  Henry moved in as the started.  Henry is a fast and dynamic athlete who rushed for 547 yards last season.  Marve has a strong arm and is accurate.

12. Tre Roberson/Dusty Kiel/Edward Wright-Baker, Indiana
At Indiana, new Head Coach Kevin Wilson has yet to name a starting QB, though Dusty Kiel and Edwin-Wright Baker will both have a legitimate shot.